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Uncertainty and Risk Management in Cyber Situational Awareness

Li, Jason; Ou, Xinming; Rajagopalan, Raj
HP Laboratories


Keyword(s): security, uncertainty, logic, empirical analysis

Abstract: Handling cyber threats unavoidably needs to deal with both uncertain and imprecise information. What we can observe as potential malicious activities can seldom give us 100% confidence on important questions we care about, e.g. what machines are compromised and what damage has been incurred. In security planning, we need information on how likely a vulnerability can lead to a successful compromise to better balance security and functionality, performance, and ease of use. These information are at best qualitative and are often vague and imprecise. In cyber situational awareness, we have to rely on such imperfect information to detect real attacks and to prevent an attack from happening through appropriate risk management. This chapter surveys existing technologies in handling uncertainty and risk management in cyber situational awareness.

21 Pages

Additional Publication Information: Published in ARO Workshop on Cyber Situational Awareness, March 3-4 2009, George Mason University

External Posting Date: August 6, 2009 [Fulltext]. Approved for External Publication
Internal Posting Date: August 6, 2009 [Fulltext]

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