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Predicting the Future With Social Media

Asur, Sitaram; Huberman, Bernardo A.
HP Laboratories


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Abstract: In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper, we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In particular, we use the chatter from to forecast box- office revenues for movies. We show that a simple model built from the rate at which tweets are created about particular topics can outperform market-based predictors. We further demonstrate how sentiments extracted from Twitter can be utilized to improve the forecasting power of social media.

8 Pages

External Posting Date: April 21, 2010 [Fulltext]. Approved for External Publication
Internal Posting Date: April 21, 2010 [Fulltext]

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